Pilgrim's Progress

Seeking an early resumption of ministerial level discussion on a new round, WTO DG Mike Moore committed January 7 to bridging the gaps among Members. In short order, he held meetings in Geneva with about thirty delegations before embarking on a whirlwind tour of capitals. In the last two weeks, he has held face-to-face meetings with senior political and bureaucratic officials in Delhi, Brussels, and Washington, D.C.. In New York, he met with the UN Secretary General Kofi Annan and senior staff where he argued an interesting case that what happened to WTO in Seattle is just the tip of the iceberg.

After two weeks of intense consultations, Moore is a more sober man. At a media breakfast in Brussels January 18, he said, "I have yet to see movement of a substantial nature and cannot say we are any closer than we were before."

The next phase of his travels includes the World Economic Forum at Davos, and then on to Bangkok for the UNCTAD meeting. He appears to consider neither of these meetings as the fora needed to create momentum to resolve disagreements at WTO. However, both fora may prove useful in the search for a mechanism to keep the new round initiative alive. Moore obviously cannot continue to play traveling salesman absent persuasive evidence that movement is occurring in country positions. As Kissinger demonstrated in the Middle East, shuttle diplomacy can work when there is a shared objective binding the parties. Without a concrete objective in place, Moore's reward for global travel will be merely jetlag and indigestion.

It is becoming clear that separating WTO reform from the process of consensus building for a new round will be extremely difficult. Both issues turn to a large degree on addressing the demands of the developing world. Therefore, the institutional reform issue is further complicating Moore's progress.

Until a viable proposal emerges that meets the test of inclusivity for large and small WTO Members, both the reform process and a new round will be stymied. Most thinking thus far seems to have held closely to existing institutional consultation practices, even though these are a prime cause of the growing gridlock.

The crux of the problem is developing country participation: how to have an inclusive process that accommodates developing countries. It is therefore critical that WTO hear from the developing countries on the reform issue. Up to now, there is little on the table other than India's generic demand for reform. A developing country proposal, perhaps under the auspices of the G 77 that addresses an approach to studying and engaging the need for reform could effectively begin the essential dialogue.

Accordingly, suggestions for a "security council" model, an "executive committee", and other elite management models will not receive a positive endorsement from developing countries. One fact not adequately considered is the existing capacity to structure more formal voting arrangements, as provided by both the GATT and the WTO Charter. While such an approach is unlikely to be suggested by any of the major industrial countries, it may be introduced by the developing countries themselves.

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