Outlook for the 4th WTO Ministerial Conference

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OUTLOOK FOR THE 4TH WTO MINISTERIAL CONFERENCE

In a sense the preparations for the 4th WTO Ministerial Conference began on December 4 1999, the day the Seattle Ministerial conference ended. If we look back over the intervening year and a half, it is apparent that the negotiation environment has remained inflexible. There remain vast gulfs among Members regarding virtually all of the issues that confounded the Seattle meeting.

The EU and the US remain far apart on the scope and content of a new round. The developing countries are still waiting for some meaningful progress on the Uruguay Round implementation issues, and a recognition of the profound imbalances that exist within the multilateral trading regime that amount to systemic discrimination against their commercial and development interests.

The least developed countries have been repeatedly assured that barrier free access to the world's richest markets was imminent for their products. These hopes have been dashed by political cowardice in Japan, the EU, Canada, and the US. The Quad has failed miserably to present a model for the world. Their proposal now being prepared as a further response to the developing world is unlikely to meet expectations.

Neither the agriculture negotiations nor the services negotiations have reached a stage that would encourage one that bargaining will commence in the next year. In effect, there is nothing in play in Geneva that one might use as a means to leverage the system toward a new round. This is interesting because it means that efforts to build genuine leverage since Seattle have failed. In other words, there is almost no sign of a consensus emerging in Geneva with eight weeks to go before Qatar hosts the WTO Ministers November 9 to 13 in Doha.

Since the morning of September 11, there has been a growing awareness that the terrorist attacks on the United States have far-reaching and indeed mind-boggling implications. There is hardly any aspect of modern life that will not be affected. It is clear already that there will be an impact on the trade front. There is almost certain to be a slow down in international trade activity as ports of entry are brought under a heightened state of security for the indefinite future. This is likely to apply not only to passenger traffic, but also to cargo and container traffic.

In addition, the upcoming Doha WTO Ministerial Conference is facing a quantum jump in security concerns, given both the Middle Eastern venue and the concentration of official delegations in a relatively confined area. Recalling the WTO Secretariat's less than robust endorsement of the Doha location, and the US military presence in the country, there are questions emerging in Geneva regarding the advisability of proceeding under conditions of apprehended war.

Responding to the growing concern of the diplomatic community, United States Trade Representative Robert B. Zoellick issued a statement September 14 regarding the November 9 - 13 Doha Ministerial, which noted that, "While we will take every possible step to ensure security, it is important that the World Trade Organization meeting in Doha proceed so that the world trading system can continue to promote international growth, development, and openness."

Significantly, Mr. Zoellick did not say "negotiations". There are some delegations in Geneva that are quietly advocating a delay in the meeting in part for security reasons. In late July of this year, the Hizbollah condemned Qatar for allowing an Israeli delegation to take part in the WTO gathering in November. Doubtless, extremists are examining the terror potential of Doha.

The other part of the reasoning is that there simply is not enough time to package a consensus agenda for a new round. A delay in having the WTO Ministerial Conference of four to six months might allow time to reach agreement. There is of course no guarantee that the Islamic Members of WTO will be inclined to support the launch of a new round, especially given the depth of feeling that as a group globalisation has hampered their development efforts.

It remains to be seen whether WTO ambassadors will begin to register their concerns with the Director-General about meeting in Doha. However, it appears likely that the informal security discussions will continue if, as is expected, the US launches retaliatory air strikes in the near future. One can only guess what the US strategic timetable might look like, but it is hard to imagine that the initial strike will not come before November. Indeed, it could be delivered as early as the week of September 23.

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